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2019-12-24 | J++ Newsletter #84
Merry Christmas from all of us at J++ with this data-driven holiday greeting. 

The J++ data elves have been hard at work exploring snow stats (what else in Scandinavia this time of year?!), to find out where in Sweden you have a decent chance of a white Christmas – now and in the future?

With climate change and fewer days with sub-zero temperatures large parts of Sweden look set to have barely any snow at all in future. 

Take Stockholm, for instance: The Swedish capital currently has about one and a half months of snow every winter. 

In 50 years, climate scientists predict it will have only between four and 15 days of snow, depending on how quickly the world acts on climate change.

How much snow will there be where you live?

For Swedish readers, click to explore what future winters are expected to look like in your local area
on our site, and local journalists can use all the content with a reference to Newsworthy.

We’ve also checked what the chances of a white Christmas are, around the country. This year you'd have to head some distance north to get a good chance of snow, but what does data from previous years tell us? 

Looking even further back, we have seen Decembers without any snow at all creeping northwards in the past ten years.

But it isn’t the first time: there were also several very mild years in the 1970s.

How we did it (the TL;DR version)

The data comes from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. They’ve done some pretty snazzy climate modelling on things like number of days with snow on the ground, which is broken down at a very granular level. 

These are a bit of a treasure trove for data journalists interested in climate data, check it out here

Using SMHI's modelled data you can see the number of snow days an area typically has per winter today, and what it can expect to have 50 years from now. The models for future data are based on two scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.

All data analysis and charts done in R (as you may know, we’re Team Python, but we do have one lonely R fan here in the office). 

Check out the full methodology on our website (only in Swedish, sorry!).

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